Federal shutdown pushed project stress higher

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Venture stress inched increased in October as the development business absorbed the affect of the federal authorities’s first full month of a record-breaking shutdown, in response to the most recent knowledge from Cincinnati-based ConstructConnect.

The Project Stress Index, a measure of building tasks which were delayed or deserted, ticked up 1% from September to October after dropping all through the summer season. The rise places the benchmark about 4.9% above its 2021 baseline, mentioned Devin Bell, assistant economist at ConstructConnect.

“The Venture Stress Index rose this month following three consecutive months of decline within the index,” Bell instructed Development Dive. “The rise was largely as a consequence of a rise in bid date delays with on-hold exercise largely offsetting its affect.”

Bid date delays jumped 8.5% in October, together with a 1.9% enhance in total venture abandonments, in response to the report. An 8.2% drop in tasks positioned on maintain partly tempered these will increase.

The shutdown’s effects showed up clearly in public building exercise, Bell instructed Development Dive. Public venture abandonments surged 45.8% from October 2024, along with a 2.6% enhance in public tasks positioned on pause. Bell mentioned public sector stress intensified in October as companies froze building choices because of the shutdown.

“Exterior financial occasions have closely influenced each personal and public abandonment exercise,” Bell instructed Development Dive. “This was seen in October, with public venture abandonment exercise rising as the federal government was shut down for the entire month.”

However, the general Venture Stress Index stays effectively beneath the mid-year spike following the post-Liberation Day tariff jump. That highlights potential resilience within the building market regardless of economic and political uncertainty, mentioned Bell.

Within the personal sector, abandonments fell modestly in October and have remained largely regular following Liberation Day. Personal tasks positioned on maintain dropped about 68.9% since final October, mentioned Bell.

General stress circumstances sit roughly according to final yr’s degree, up simply 0.4% in comparison with October 2024. Nonetheless, Bell added value pressures blended with public funding modifications will proceed to test project viability.

The federal authorities reopened on Nov. 13, that means any normalization of public building exercise won’t seem till subsequent month’s report. The brand new spending invoice which allowed the federal government to reopen offers momentary funding for many companies by January 2026.